Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 456 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 456 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. TORNADO. RISK...Limited. AREA...Primarily northeast Oklahoma. ONSET...After 8 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Significant. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and portions of northwest Arkansas. ONSET...After 7 PM. AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...Limited. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Mid morning. FIRE WEATHER DANGER. RISK...Limited. AREA...West of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma. ONSET...Afternoon. DISCUSSION... Gusty winds and warm temperatures will raise grassland fire spread rates this afternoon. Any fire starts could spread quickly. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early evening from southern Kansas through central Oklahoma. These storms will spread eastward and increase in coverage across northeast Oklahoma during the evening into early morning hours. Severe weather is likely for portions of northeast Oklahoma with large hail and locally damaging winds possible. A limited risk of tornadoes will accompany the early evening storms before the higher risk transitions toward damaging winds as they spread toward northwest Arkansas late tonight. Additional storms may spread into southeast Oklahoma this evening, however uncertainty remains high in the overall coverage and duration of storms across this region. Should storms develop and persist then they will also pose a risk of severe weather. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation of the Regional Spotter Network May Be Needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. SUNDAY...Thunderstorm and High Wind Potential. MONDAY...No Hazards. TUESDAY...Thunderstorm...High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential. WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential. THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm chances along with a risk of severe weather continues on Sunday along and ahead of a passing cold front. Far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas have the higher thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon with storms moving east of the region by Sunday evening. Winds increase on Tuesday with a window for higher grassland fire spread rates Tuesday afternoon. This will be in advance of the next cold front which passes Tuesday night into Wednesday. A line of thunderstorms with a risk of severe weather is expected to accompany the passing cold front. The front is likely to stall near the Red River by early Thursday and focus additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as it lifts northward as a warm front. Locally heavy rainfall is possible during this time frame with details in location and amounts to be refined in later forecasts. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.