Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
443 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-210945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
443 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Critical.
AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
A high impact severe weather and flood event is set to unfold across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today into Tuesday. Thunderstorms
are expected to blossom across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late
this Morning into this Afternoon as a potent storm system begins to pivot
out of the Southwest and into the Plains. As a warm front moves north across the
area this Morning into this Afternoon, the airmass across the region
will become increasingly unstable. This will allow any thunderstorms that
develop to become supercellular with a few strong tornadoes possible.
Large hail and wind gusts to around 80 mph will be possible as well.
This activity will taper off later Tonight.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be likely with an increased potential
for flash flooding across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
2 to 4 inches of rain will be common across the area with amounts as high
as 8 inches possible in some locations. This will likely lead to flash flooding
of creeks, streams and low lying areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall threat continues into Tuesday as
thunderstorm complex that will develop west of the area Tonight moves across
eastern oklahoma and western Arkansas. This complex will have the potential to
produce damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. These storm are expected
to exit the area late Tuesday Afternoon or early Tuesday Evening.

Showers and thunderstorms may clip western portions of the area Wednesday night
and again on Friday as series of upper level disturbances slide to the west of
the area.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management personnel and first responders should continue
to closely monitor the latest forecasts both Today and Tuesday.
Significant severe weather is expected Today with the potential
for high end impacts, including flash flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.